August 12, 2006

If the details emerging about the deal struck last night at the UN security council are accurate, then the only thing we can say for certain that there is going to be no peace for a while. Hezbollah has indicated that it will accept UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese national army entering the south, and this is indicated in the resolution. The two captured Israeli soldiers are to be handed back, but this is not made a condition for a lasting ceasefire: which sort of undermines Israel's utterly spurious claims that it had to destroy Lebanon because of the captures. There is no immediate suggestion of an attempt to disarm Hezbollah, which simply isn't going to happen, but by the same token Israel has been allowed to continue its operations and no deadline, timetable or benchmark has been set for its withdrawal from Lebanon. The resolution includes the demand that both Hezbollah and Lebanon cease military activities, but at the same time it allows the Israelis to continue military operations for the time being, which Israel says will continue at least until Sunday when its cabinet will meet to decide whether to accept the resolution. After that, there is no clarity about when they will withdraw. Israel has now expanded its offensive against Lebanon.

Since Israel hasn't been able to win, and given a potential domestic crisis for Olmert as a result, it has accepted a resolution that doesn't give it everything it wants, but is so vague that it cannot hinder the assault either. Israeli troops have been ordered to advance to the Litani. That being the case, there is no way they will evacuate quickly without being driven out: one does not try to advance 30 kilometres into another country only to beat a hasty retreat. What is more, the Israelis continue to attack the civilian infrastructure, destroying the power facilities in the port city of Sidon. Among Israel's other attacks was a calculated attack on a convoy of thirty cars fleeing Marjayoun, which killed at least six people and wounded thirty.

Unsurprisingly, Foreign Minister Tarek Mitri of the Hariri gang, has been obliged to express some scepticism even while signing the deal, making the perfectly excellent pragmatic point that a peace deal that is unenforceable and allows Israel to continue and intensify and increase its invasion of and attack on Lebanon isn't really a peace deal. This is such an obvious point that you can bet that we will be expected to forget it very quickly.