May 30, 2013

The active participation of militias in the conflict in Syria is no longer a secret.

However, the move is a dangerous development that will possibly open the door for the return of sectarian fighting in neighboring Iraq, known for its own ruthless militia factions.

In fact there are reports of sectarian fighting mounted by militias returning to certain neighborhoods of Baghdad.

Militia wars are proxy wars. They are waged on behalf of powers bigger than the militia faction itself.

But in the Middle East at large, we can see a new development in which militia groups carve up certain regions or areas to exercise their influence and military presence.

This is obvious in Iraq, which is in reality divided into militia spheres of influence. The move is contagious. It is already there in Lebanon and is spreading to Syria.

The problem with semi-states run by militias is that there is usually no end in sight for the infighting. In the case of Iraq, the 2003-U.S. invasion succeeded in toppling the regime of Saddam Hussein but did not put an end to the war.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq did not guarantee a cessation to hostilities among the disparate militia groups.

The same thing will happen in Syria. Even if the war as we know it today comes to end, it will have repercussions that may continue for decades with militia groups fighting each other.

It is a new Middle East that is being created. Instead of dividing it geographically, it is being divided on the line of the sphere of militia influence.

It is a strategic blunder to leave the fate of a country or a nation in the hands of marauding militias.

The question looming large concerns the interests that are being served by pursuing such a catastrophic policy.

There are so many theories but they all seem unreasonable, illogical and contradictory.




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