August 27, 2004 - "We’re making progress on the ground", George Bush said this week, talking about Iraq.

If this is progress, let’s hope things don’t go really wrong.

A brief recap of the past 20 months in Iraq reminds us that, unofficially, 14,000 civilians have died and, officially, 1,095 coalition soldiers have been killed.

"Progress" in the country was quickly initiated once the Iraqi people were "liberated" in April 2003, and the ensuing looting and lawlessness that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein has continued unabated.

Iraq is neither under the control of the coalition forces, its own security services, nor under the control of the insurgents.

In laymen’s terms, this is usually called chaos, but in Iraq it is deemed to be progress.

Non-Iraqi troops are already beginning to withdraw back to the barracks away from day-to-day visibility and leaving security to poorly-trained and poorly equipped Iraqi police.

The United States Army has been chased out of Ramadi, has given up on Falluja and is battling to control Mosul.

In the city of Najaf, Shiite leader Muqtada al Sadr and his militia have been resisting – successfully – the Americans since the beginning of this month.

Nature abhors a vacuum, which is what the pre-emptive strike and subsequent occupation of Iraq have created.

So far, Iraq has gone through several types of leadership since the fall of Saddam’s regime.

None have managed to put down the rebellions and take control of the country.

The present leadership, the interim Government led by Ayad Allawi has, it is understood, roughly the same degree of minimal influence that the leader of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, wields.

The Government appears to have little legitimacy and in a recent poll to gauge popularity, Ayad Allawi gained just 0.2 per cent.

Into the breach have stepped the insurgents, at least 100,000 of them, many of whom are extremely well armed.

They are fighting against poverty, the Americans, the Sunnis, the Shiites, against ministers in the new interim Government and any Iraqis who work for them.

Anywhere else on the planet, this would be called a civil war.

In Iraq, President Bush calls it "progress".

The non-homogeneous insurgents have enough weaponry to continue their fight against the coalition forces for the next five years.

The coalition forces have enough weaponry to last until they are forced to quit.

Elsewhere, this would constitute a lost war, but in Iraq it is progress.

On the reconstruction of Iraq, just one tenth of the $18.8 billion pledged has been spent.

Electricity output is less than before the war started.

Of the 2,800 proposed projects including dams, new schools and bridges, only 214 are under construction.

Some $1.8 billion of these funds was meant to have been spent on training an indigenous security force of 25,000 soldiers and a paramilitary guard of 51,000 – one fifth the size of Saddam’s army.

Yet, by April, this army was made up of just two battalions – with many new recruits leaving, complaining of low pay, poor conditions and a strong desire not to kill other Iraqis.

After 13 years of sanctions, 3 wars in the past 20 years, and a brutal dictatorship, Iraq is now in further turmoil.

But, sadly, it is slipping down the register of interest for many Westerners.

However, in January, Iraq will hold elections and will become a "democracy".

The soldiers won’t be going home though, the insurgents won’t stop and the body counts will continue to rise.

That’s progress for you.


http://www.tribweb.co.uk/edit27082004.htm