November 27, 2004

Am I a military expert, you may ask? No, I am not. But I'm not a chef either, and I know a bad meal when I eat one. This is my own analysis of military situation in Iraq.

We were told last year, after Saddam's two sons were killed and their corpses displayed in public, that resistance would go away, because they are just a handful of Saddam dead-enders and Saddam is not coming back. Instead, the resistance spread.

Then, there was this huge media hoopla surrounding the capture of Saddam himself in December 2003. That was not the end of the resistance, either.

In April of 2004, the Shiite revolt led by Sadr's militia shattered the illusion that Shiites welcome American "liberation" of Iraq.

Then, the hope of ending insurgency is on the handover of this token sovereignty to this puppet Iraqi government led by CIA lackey Allawi. That was not the end, either. Attacks in Sunni area intensified and then the August Najaf revolt by Sadr's Shiite militia again.

The latest hope is on the Falluja assault that will stamp out the last bastions of resistances, so we are told. So far, it hasn't played out, either. Rather, the assault may have made things worse.

Iraqi dirt farmers have called America's bluff (of military prowess). With very primitive weapons, such as AK47, RPG, mortars, and crude homemade bombs (the so-called IEDs - "improvised explosive devices"), they have fought the world's sole super power to a stalemate. In the coming months and years, the resistance is likely to gain more momentum. U.S. will have to withdraw or be defeated militarily.

Actually, it is pretty obvious - really. A conventional army loses if it does not win whereas the guerrilla wins if he does not lose. As long as the guerrilla keeps fighting, they will emerge as the winner.

The Iraqi resistance can persist indefinitely: blowing up pipelines, attacking supply trucks, car bombing and ambushing here and there, etc. It takes little money to keep the resistance going. Even without any government involvement, angry ordinary Arabs can donate (and keep donating) enough money to keep the resistance fighting for decades. But, to keep sizable troops in Iraq, every year U. S. has to pays 120 - 150 billion, mostly going to Halliburton and other well-connected companies. You do the math.

Everyday the resistance picks off a dozen American solders (yes, a couple dozen - if wounded are included). America responds with terror bombings on civilians, because we don't know where these resistance fighters are and we just bomb some homes, claiming they are terrorist safe houses. This is not unlike the NAZI occupation in WW2: the Nazi's didn't know where the resistance fighters were, either; so, they just rounded up some young men near the spot of attack on the German army and summarily executed them.

U. S. ground forces are stretched pretty thin in Iraq already, and still keep losing soldiers everyday, while the Resistance has endless new supply of fighters, Iraqis or other Arabs or even Iranians (Iranians are not Arabs). America cannot significantly increase troop level (or just to maintain the current level) in Iraq without a military draft, which is a difficult sell domestically.

Even if Bush manages to push through a draft, he had better close the borders tight, because lots and lots of draftees will desert to Canada and Mexico. Did Clinton, Cheney, or Bush go fight in Vietnam? In addition, I don't have confidence that those drafted 20-year-old's, whose perception of war are from Hollywood and Television, with tattoos and nose-rings and hip-hop music, can really fight in Iraq. The training of the draftees will take some time, if they can be made soldiers at all. Those finally sent to Iraq are likely to mutiny or worse (such as open revolt,) after they find out that war is no video game. Wearing full combat gear under 140-degree sun does not feel like the cool hero images they envision from the media. They will soon realize that they are likely to come back home in body bags or have some body parts left behind in Iraq. So far, U. S. has suffered 30,000 casualties in the Iraqi theater, with nearly one third of them dead or permanently crippled. See CBS 60-minutes reports:

Iraq: The Uncounted
www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/19/60minutes/main656756.shtm
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The government can control the media all they want. But, the draftees will find out the truth on the sandy desert roads in Iraq. The following article highlights the differences between American soldiers and Iraqi fighters:

"17 (American) soldiers refused to embark on what they called a "suicide mission" convoy. They claimed their vehicles were inadequately armored, poorly repaired and running on contaminated gas that could cause them to become victims of roadside bombings and sniper fire.

"And then they called home to their mommies to complain. One man even called his grandpa.

"On CNN's Sunday news show, US Brigadier General James E Chambers, patiently addressing each and every soldier's complaint, explaining that every five convoy vehicles are escorted by a five-ton truck operated by heavily armed contractors or military police, that every US soldier on the convoy is heavily armed regardless of position, that convoys generally receive air coverage by army rotary aircraft, that special quick-reaction forces are often attached to convoys, and that all gas is carefully filtered and tested."

"Do insurgents call their mommies to complain? Does their leadership appear on al-Jazeera Sunday news shows, explaining why they have no shoes, no socks, no latest anything? No. Why? Because they're busy fighting.

"Insurgents don't need much because they've never had much. And still they fight. They don't get scared delivering the gas.

"..fights a war with people armed with homemade bombs and kitchen knives who seem unstoppable. Why?

"It started with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and its American continuation. In fighting a comparably unarmed enemy with overwhelming force, America accidentally created within the "enemy" a new class of killers through naturally selecting out the most extraordinarily talented fighters. These natural-selected fighters survive not only their surrounding poverty and hostile environment, but a murderous onslaught from the most powerful militaries on Earth.

"US Army General Charles Dunlop saw the coming wave years ago while serving in Somalia: "I was struck," Dunlop says, "by the resourcefulness, cleverness and fierceness of the Somalis in confronting us" even though they had only primitive weapons and were often starving. Dunlop warns, America underestimates "the combat capability of societies we had considered too resource-poor .."

Full article: (This is an in depth analysis of the psychology of the warfare. You must read the full article to appreciate the author's thoughts.) GI Joes who just want to go home By Sarah Whalen
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FK25Ak01.html
(Sarah Whalen is an expert in Islamic law and taught law at Loyola University School of Law in New Orleans, Louisiana.)

From the previously cited news report in Falluja on Nov. 22 by Christian Science Monitor:

"When the team from Alpha Company finally entered the last redoubt of the insurgents - a burning house that had already been hammered by rockets, explosive charges, and tank rounds - they had every reason to believe any remaining gunmen were dead.
"Instead, point man Lance Corp. Richard Caseras entered with his team and ran into the spray of an insurgent's AK-47 assault rifle. A second fighter then emerged, a pineapple grenade in each hand, with pins already pulled.

"Eyeball to eyeball with their opponents, the marines shot them both dead; the grenades fell to the ground and exploded, blasting the Americans with shrapnel...

"The toll from a brutal night: One dead marine and nine wounded, including this correspondent, who was struck in the arm by a small piece of shrapnel.

Minor mutinies were reported already, primarily among National Guards units.

In the future, if draftees are sent to Iraq, things will get even worse. The primary goal of drafted soldiers is to survive. They will do whatever it takes to survive. If they have to kill innocent civilians, they will do it. If they have to stay in bunkered and air-conditioned bases and file phony reports of patrols and fighting, they will do it. If they have to mutiny, they will do it. If they have to frag their commander (killing their own commander with an AK47 and claiming killed by the rebels), they will
do it. (I didn't make this up. It all happened in the Vietnam War before.) Hey, who can blame them for anything they can possibly do? They are under "combat stress in unpredictable, hair-trigger circumstances", so they argue for a marine who shot dead an unarmed, wounded Iraqi and was caught on camera. (This marine will be punished for his stupidity to be caught on tape.)

"I would have shot the insurgent too. Two shots to the head," said Sergeant Nicholas Graham, 24, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "You can't trust these people. He should not be investigated. He did nothing wrong." Another marine said about this instance."

The following articles give you a taste of current problems with our National Guards:

William S. Lind: Destroying the National Guard
www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,Lind_092404,00.html

Troops' rebellion points to supply shortages
www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2004-10-21-our-view
_x.htm

News on Nov. 25, 2004

"Members of a California Army National Guard battalion preparing for deployment to Iraq said this week that they were under strict lockdown and being treated like prisoners rather than soldiers by Army commanders at the remote desert camp where they are training."

My note: Without lockdown, many would have deserted.

Full story:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&u=/latimests/
20041125/ts_latimes/guardsmensaytheyrefacingiraqilltrained&p ...

We are losing the Iraq War militarily: Part One
www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?id=2581
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=8165