November 27, 2004

Am I a military expert, you may ask? No, I am not. But I'm not a chef either, and I know a bad meal when I eat one.

This is my own analysis of military situation in Iraq. It contains many references.

-- Introduction --

The overwhelming popular support of Iraqi invasion in March 2003 is partially due to the perception that there is NO military risk. Victory is easy and assured. War is just like a video game: dropping bombs or firing missiles from afar, and diaper heads dropping dead like flies. Then, we victoriously enter the conquered cities with people welcoming us with flowers and kisses.

This is exactly the core of the illusion – American military prowess. This delusion has been building for a very long time - since the end of the Vietnam War 30 years ago. The overwhelming success of the first Gulf War in 1991 greatly reinforces this illusion. The euphoric illusion reached its climatic peak on April 9, 2003, upon the fall of Baghdad after only three weeks of fighting with very limited American casualties.

"It's not mismanagement that has us mired in Iraq. There is a more fundamental explanation: the misleading and dangerous conception of modern war to which Democrats and Republicans alike have subscribed.

"The fact is that in the aftermath of the Cold War, Americans became enthralled with military power.

"Central to this infatuation was the conviction, emerging out of Desert Storm, that the United States had unlocked the innermost secrets of warfare. For the world's sole superpower, gone were the risks and uncertainties endemic to past conflicts. Gone too was the prospect of massive destruction and incidental slaughter. Armed with its high-tech arsenal, the United States could henceforth employ its military might with laser-like precision and unerring effectiveness.

"Time and again, history has made a mockery of man's efforts to effectively harness violence for political purposes. During the interval between the Cold War and 9/11, Americans had indulged in the fantasy that history no longer constrained the United States. Our soldiers in Iraq must now deal with the consequences of that delusion."

Full article:
Shedding the illusions of shock and awe
www.post-gazette.com/pg/04280/390898.stm

-- Section one --
The Falluja "Victory"

"blasted guerrilla strongholds"
"pounds Falluja"
"hammer rebel positions"
"tighten the noose"
"Unleash 'Operation Phantom Fury'"
"imposed curfew"
"smash what has become the largest remaining insurgent
stronghold in Iraq"
"Cornered Rebels"
"hunt down last Fallujah rebels"
"have broken the back of the insurgency"
"mission accomplished in Fallujah, 1,600 rebels killed"
(Wasn't mission accomplished 18 months ago already?
Later the number was changed to 1,200)

While we are bombarded with news like this, it is hard for ordinary people to see that we are losing the Iraq War - not just politically, but militarily. Here is the reality check on the Falluja "victory."

Our military assembled over 12,000 ground forces in addition to full air support. The city was bombarded for many weeks leading to the final assault. The media also told us that there were 3,000 rebels in the city. Later the military said most rebels fled before the assault. So, let's say 1,000 rebels held out in the city.

The military gave different numbers of how many Iraqi rebels were killed in the Falluja offensive – anywhere from 1,000 to 1,600 killed. They finally settled on 1,200. The Red Cross said several hundred civilians were killed. Subtracting civilian deaths, let's guess that 800 rebels were killed. Note that wounded rebels almost all died, because the first target of our troops was the Falluja hospital and since then our troops have prevented any Iraqis from getting medical help there - civilians or rebels.

Our military said 54 of our troops were killed in the operation. But, they refused to give any figure on wounded. But, the first 5 days of the assault caused over 400 wounded to be flown into Germany from Nov. 8 through Nov. 12:

"The 73 new patients at the U.S. military's Landstuhl Regional Medical Center pushed the number of arrivals this week to 412, nearly all injured in Fallujah, hospital spokeswoman Marie Shaw said."

After this story was published, military denied journalists access to the hospital. We don't know the figures beyond the first 5 days.

Note that only the more severely injured are sent to Germany. Once sent to Germany, they usually don't go back to Iraq. Less seriously injured are treated in Iraq. Let's guess conservatively that, in the subsequent 7 days, U. S. only had half the number of severely injured (i.e. 200) than the first 5 days. That makes 600 seriously wounded. Let's also assume the same amount of not-so-seriously wounded were treated in Iraq. Then, the total American casualties were 1,254 (with 54 fatalities). The August battle in Najaf with Sadr's militia caused 1,100 casualties, but only 12 deaths. This is reasonable, because armoured vehicles and sophisticated body armors avoided fatalities but not injuries.

The conclusion from Falluja assault: we assembled 10 times more troops (plus full air support) than the rebels and lay siege to a city only 4-5 miles across. With the most advanced weapons money can buy and with the city bombed to rubbles, OUR CASUALTIES WERE ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN THE REBELS, who were armed with only AK47s, RPGs and mortars.

Our military declared with a straight face that the Falluja assault was a victory and we have broken the back of the insurgency. A week after the "victory", fighting continued in Falluja:

Fierce clashes renew in Iraq's Fallujah

"NEAR FALLUJAH, Iraq, Nov. 22 (Xinhuanet) – Fierce clashes between US-led forces and defenders of Fallujah renewed Monday Morning as relief teams were struggling to enter the battle-torn central Iraqi city.

"Fierce clashes are underway in Jolan, Askari and Shuhadaa neighborhoods," witnesses told Xinhua."
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/22/content_2247785
.htm


News on Nov. 26:

"In Fallujah, just four insurgents tied down a Marine company for hours in a nighttime battle."

In pockets of Fallujah, US troops still face harsh battles
www.csmonitor.com/2004/1126/p10s01-woiq.html

This is just Fallujah.


The "broken" rebels overran Mosul in just two days with almost no casualties to the rebels. U. S. was forced to send 2,000 troops back from Falluja to Mosul. Several other cities also experienced rebel attacks, including the previously "pacified" Samara. Then, on Saturday Nov. 20, rebel attacks spread across the capital - Baghdad. The military admitted only one solider was killed on Saturday in Baghdad, after a Reuters cameraman filmed a burning Humvee with a body inside.


After we "broke the back of insurgency", the military asked for 5,000 more troops:

Senator McCain asked for even more.

Up to 50,000 more US troops needed in Iraq: Senator McCain
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=%2fafp%2fus_i
raq_troops


Korea media reported on Nov. 22:

"The U.S. 2nd Infantry Division stationed near the heavily fortified border with North Korea has started sending more than 100 tanks to Iraq as part of a weapons upgrade operation, U.S. officials said yesterday."
www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2004/11/22/20041122
0005.asp


News on Nov. 24:
U.S. Troops End Nine Years in Bosnia Peace Force

Guess where these American troops will be sent after their withdrawal from Bosnia?

My guess is that the rebels destroyed many American armors and inflicted heavy casualties on our forces. As a result, the U. S. needs reinforcements in Iraq, and is scraping the bottom of barrel all over the world to come up with reinforcement troops.

Two months ago, our forces swept through south of Baghdad - the so-called Triangle of Death, and 1,000 British troops were brought in to guard the area, all before the Falluja assault. On Nov. 23, it was reported that our troops launched massive offensive in the same areas again. This Triangle of Death is located on the southern supply line to our troops. My guess? Recent rebel attacks in this area grew to the point that threatened to cut off this southern supply line from Kuwait. Our troops were forced to counter attack to secure it.

No, Iraq is unlike Vietnam. It is much worse than Vietnam militarily. During the Vietnam War, American facilities in the capital of Saigon were usually safe and rarely attacked. In contrast, the Green Zone in Baghdad, the symbol of American occupation, is mortared almost daily. Along the 6-mile-long highway from Baghdad International Airport to the Green Zone, numerous military personnel and civilian contractors were killed or wounded. The Green Zone is like a prison for Americans and Iraqi puppets, hiding behind layers of blast walls and other fortifications.

No, Iraq is unlike Vietnam. Vietnam was just a quagmire. Iraq is turning into an inferno.

The only victory by our military is its successful media control.

To be continued...