BAGHDAD, December 27, 2004 -- Mercurial Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr once again has everyone guessing about his next move.

Officially, the young religious leader -- whose summer standoff with US troops in Najaf threatened to spark a Shi'ite rebellion across Iraq -- said he is not participating in next month's national elections. Supporters, however, say he has dozens of candidates on various slates.

Sadr privately has told other Shi'ite leaders that he will support their push for the Jan. 30 vote to be held as scheduled, but has signaled to Sunni Muslims who came to his aid in August that he favors a postponement.

Though he says he has no interest in running for office, he recently opened a political affairs bureau in the Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City, which some people see as the first step in a possible move to separate his religious profile from a political career.

It is a risky strategy, but one that leaves him with open options no matter what happens with next month's vote.

''I suspect that Moqtada Sadr has a plan to position himself for whichever way he wants to go," said a Western diplomat in Baghdad, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

If the election succeeds, his under-the-radar participation ensures he will have a toehold in the new government. If it fails, Sadr can say he knew it would not work out.

''His own calculation is that the election won't go full scale, so he wants to be safe until the storm passes," said Hassan Bazaz, a political analyst at Baghdad University. ''He's picked a middle way. He's playing it smart."

After attracting the rabid support of thousands of young followers by tapping into anti-American frustration, Sadr is mindful that his popularity was based in large part on his role as an opposition figure, political specialists say.

If he joins the government or the more established Shi'ite religious establishment, Sadr risks being swallowed up in the mainstream and losing his claim as spokesman for the poor and oppressed. ''He knows he's a phenomenon," Bazaz said. ''He knows if he joins the [leading religious council in Najaf], he'll have a secondary role, if he has one at all. At the same time he can't oppose them because he knows his power has its limits."

Sadr himself is saying little. Earlier this month, he said he might support elections, but only if US troops promise to leave Iraq immediately after the vote, a condition that most observers agree is unrealistic.

In a nod to Sunni leaders, Sadr linked the election to US offensives in Fallujah and other restive cites.

''I will not enter myself in something that is futile," Sadr said in a public statement. ''The occupier is bombing our cities, city after city, but no one speaks out. . . . What is the higher priority? Helping the cities or elections?"

Given Sadr's large following, particularly among young, disenfranchised Shi'ites, several large political parties are courting his support.

''He's got his own power," said Saad Jawad, who heads the political bureau of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the leading Shi'ite party that is sponsoring a coalition of candidates known as the United Iraqi Alliance.

When the alliance sought candidates from Sadr's office for its slate, it received the names of 20 midlevel followers and no clear answer as to whether Sadr approved of their participation. ''We've heard different stories about that," Jawad said.

Still, the alliance now says it has about 20 Sadr representatives on its list, or nearly 13 percent of the slate. ''At a minimum, they've promised us they won't oppose us and won't actively encourage people not to vote," he said.

Ali Yasiri, former editor of a pro-Sadr newspaper in Baghdad, said he is one of scores of Sadr-schooled supporters who are running on different slates. It was the US closure of Yasiri's Al-Hawzer newspaper that sparked the US-Sadr standoff in the summer. Now Yasiri is running on the Independent Nationalist Elites and Cadres slate. ''Officially, there is no slate for the Sadr movement, but we have 180 candidates on our list, all of them graduates of Sadr's Friday prayer school."

The stealth campaign might be a face-saving strategy. Like every other political party in Iraq, Sadr's movement and the depths of his support have not been tested by an election. ''The risk of entering the process is that, depending upon how many votes you get, it shows how strong or weak your base is," Jawad said.

© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.