January 1, 2005 - For the occupiers we know that not counting fatalities is not a lie but an omission. We are now at a point in the occupation where we have two 10 month periods to compare these omissions and see what they’re telling us. The U.S. has been in Iraq for a total of 22 months but I’m going to leave January and February of 2004 out of this comparison because the U.S. was not in Iraq for Jan or Feb of 2003 to compare. There’s a website I’ve found that keeps track of the fatalities reported by the press called Iraq U.S. casualties and can be found here http://icasualties.org/oif/

Considering that the first 10 month period included the initial invasion of Iraq the numbers are quite startling. Total U.S. fatalities reported in this 20 month period are 1,265 which translate into 63.25 deaths per month. The first ten months of occupation had 485 reported fatalities and averaged 48.5 deaths per month. The trend is definitely going up which is amazing since the first 10 month period includes the invasion. The second ten months of occupation had 780 reported fatalities which is an increase of 61% over the first ten month period. The March 2004 through December 2004 period averaged 78 reported deaths per month.

When you divide this 20 month period into 4 five month quarters the numbers get even more telling. The first 5 months of occupation had 253 reported fatalities, remember this includes the invasion. The comparable 5 month period Mar-July ’04 reported 363 fatalities for a 43.5% increase in reported deaths. The second 5 month period of Aug-Dec ’03 had 232 reported fatalities which was a decrease from the first 5 month period of
-8.3% remember though the first 5 month period included the invasion. At least for the moment we were led to believe things were getting better. When you compare the second five month period to its comparable five month period of Aug-Dec ’04 we know the situation in Iraq is really starting to fall apart. The Aug-Dec ’04 period just completed reported 417 deaths for an increase of 79.7% to its comparable period in 2003. We are now averaging 83.4 reported deaths per month. This is higher than March of 2003 that included the initial invasion when they reported 65 deaths.

When you do month to month comparisons the numbers are even more telling. The reported deaths for December 2004 so far is 71, the U.S. reported 40 fatalities for December of 2003 which shows an increase of 77.5%. Nov ’03 had 82 reported deaths and Nov ’04 had 137 which is an increase of 67%. Oct ’03 showed 44 deaths and Oct ’04 had 63 for an increase of 43%. Sept ’03 had 31 and Sept of ’04 had 80 which was an increase of 158%. Aug ’03 showed 35 and Aug ’04 has 66 an increase of 88.6%.

From all this you would be led to believe that the tactics and strategy of the resistance is getting better while the tactics and strategy of the occupiers is not changing and in fact must be well known to the resistance so they can inflict even higher rates of casualties. I would say that the current round of replacement troops are going to be at a very large disadvantage because many of these replacements have been to Iraq before and won’t realize that the situation has changed dramatically. They will deploy tactics that they found successful during their first tour only to find out that the resistance has taken counter measures that are more successful. The next 3 to 4 months of occupation are going to be very decisive in the direction this war takes.

Peace.